COCERAL INCREASES EU GRAIN OUTLOOK
In its latest forecast for the 2024 European Union/United Kingdom grain crop, released on June 10, COCERAL increased its projection slightly to 296 million tonnes, about 500,000 tonnes higher than the previous projection in March. Wheat production (excluding durum) is expected to reach 134.5 million tonnes. Barley production is projected slightly lower, falling to 59.9 million tonnes from 61.2 million in the previous forecast. Denmark, Finland, and Spain will have better barley crops than in 2023. The preliminary EU27+UK corn crop is now seen at 64.8 million tonnes, up from 64.3 million forecast in March. The EU-27+UK rapeseed crop is forecast at 19.4 million tonnes, compared to 20.2 million in the previous forecast.
(Link: WorldGrain)
FAO: GLOBAL GRAIN SUPPLY IN THE 2024/25 CROP YEAR IS GENERALLY STABLE
Grain consumption in 2023/24 will reach 2.836 million tons, up 1.6% compared to 2022/23, mainly due to increased consumption of coarse grains and wheat. Cereal flour reserves at the end of 2024 are estimated to reach 884 million tons, up 1.4% compared to function, due to reserves of whole grains and zinc. FAO’s estimate of international cereal flour trade in 2023/24 is 487 million tonnes, up 1.7% from 2022/23 due to increased cereal flour trade. In contrast, wheat and rice trading volumes both decreased compared to 2022/23. World cereal production will reach 2,846 million tons, of which global corn and barley production is forecast to decrease. Recent adverse weather conditions in the Black Sea region will likely produce a gradual decline in world rice production.
Total world cereal consumption in 2024/25 is expected to increase by 0.5% to a new record of 2.851 million tonnes. World grain reserves will likely increase by 1.5% compared to the record 897 million tons at the beginning of the year. With usage also forecast to increase in 2024/25, the share of whole grain flour stocks and consumption is likely to remain close to 2023/24 levels, around 30.9%. It is forecast that world cereal flour trade in 2024/25 will decrease by 1.3% compared to 2023/24 to 481 million tons. Trade forecasts gradually decline, with wheat and barley trade slightly down. On the contrary, international trade is forecast to increase strongly.
(Link: Vina.Net)
