LA NINA WEATHER 70% LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN AUG-OCT, SAYS US FORECASTER
There is a 70% chance of the La Nina weather pattern, characterized by cold temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, developing during the August to October period. The current neutral phase between La Nina and El Nino weather patterns is expected to continue for several months, with a 79% chance of La Nina November through January, the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said in its monthly forecast. La Nina, a climate pattern that begins with colder-than-normal ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is linked to both floods and drought, as well as an increase in the frequency of hurricanes in the Caribbean. . Experts have said Latin America and the Caribbean should brace for the arrival of La Nina. In rice- and palm oil-producing Southeast Asian countries, meanwhile, wet weather could boost yields, while a normal Indian monsoon could support production and farm incomes.
(Link: Reuters)
WEAK CBOT CORN, SOYBEANS HEADING TOWARD OMINOUS ACHIEVEMENT
Market momentum has been downward since U.S. planting wrapped up in late May, and large speculators entered July with their most bearish-ever midyear positions. December corn futures have tumbled 19% since the start of 2024 and are down the same degree versus a year ago. November soybeans are off 14% since the year’s start but are trading 21% lower than on the same date in 2023. Given the lack of a concerning Corn Belt weather forecast and the relatively weak U.S. demand as of late, new-crop corn and soybeans appear unlikely to return to their annual highs.
November soybeans would need to gain 16% from Wednesday’s settle to match the Jan. 2 high of $12.37 per bushel. That happened only twice from this point in the last two decades, 2010 and 2020, and both were associated with a significant downsizing in expected U.S. ending stocks. December corn needs to rise more than 23% to return to $5.02-1/4, and such gains were also seen in 2010 and 2020 for the same reasons as soybeans.
(Link: Reuters)
