UKRAINE KEEPS ITS GRAIN MOVING
Ever since Ukraine was invaded by Russia on Feb. 22, 2022, it has been engaged in a fight for survival. Ukraine has set up a new route out of the Port of Odesa in which ships proceed into the waters of NATO members Romania, Bulgaria, and Turkey and out toward the Mediterranean Sea. Ukraine also exports through the European Union, but the “solidarity lanes” organized by the 27 Member States have created friction with farmers’ groups in some of the EU countries nearest to Ukraine, notably Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Romania.
IGC, in its Oct. 19 Grain Market Report, “With farmers confirming good results to date, forecast production is maintained at 28.0 million tonnes (a 1% increase from the previous year). Its forecast for maize exports from Ukraine during the 2023-24 marketing year was 18 million tonnes, a figure unchanged from its previous report and down 38% from 2022-23 exports. In an Oct. 24 report, the USDA put 2023-24 exports of maize at 24.7 million tonnes, 8% down year-on-year. The USDA’s forecasts for Ukrainian exports of other grains in 2023-24 are 10.5 million tonnes for wheat, up 39% year-on-year, 1.7 million for barley, down 37%, and 170,000 tonnes of rye, up 9.4%.
Gorbachov emphasized that Ukraine is not competing with the other big grain exporter in the Black Sea region, Russia. “Russia exports mainly wheat, and for them the interesting market, of course, is mainly North Africa,” “We concentrate more on corn,” Gorbachov said. The biggest problem is the price of logistics, he highlighted the extra cost of insurance for shipping. “Of course, things are difficult, and it is our expectation that the exports for corn will be $150 ex-farm,” he said. “And with the price of logistics at $100, we will need to achieve $250 on the world market. But unfortunately, the price is $215 to $220 fob Constanța. “Our farmers are losing about $30 to $40 a tonne.
(Link: WorldGrain)
