US AND CHINA AT ODDS OVER CORN IMPORT IDEAS AFTER SOY DIVERGENCE
Two months ago, the U.S. Department of Agriculture stopped using Chinese customs data to estimate China’s soybean imports since supplier data indicated much larger volumes, creating a large gap between U.S. and Chinese soy import outlooks. That disparity has now spread to corn as USDA and China hold vastly different views of how much corn China will import in the 2024-25 marketing year starting Oct. 1. USDA on Friday pegged 2024-25 Chinese corn imports at 23 million metric tons, unchanged from 2023-24. Earlier that day, China’s agricultural ministry forecast 2024-25 imports at 13 million tons.
The difference in the two 2024-25 estimates is not driven by customs data discrepancies. USDA expects China’s domestic grain prices will remain higher than the world market, possibly making foreign corn cheaper than domestic supplies. China projects its 2024-25 corn crop at a record 297 million tons, up nearly 3% on the year and thus reducing import needs. USDA has the upcoming corn crop at 292 million tons versus 288.84 million in 2023-24. USDA and China’s understanding of realized Chinese corn imports appears to have diverged in late 2023 as both agencies hold identical estimates of 18.7 million tons for the 2022-23 season ended last September. The two agencies’ final figures for the previous several marketing years also match.
China recently accounted for as much as 31% of annual U.S. corn exports (2020-21), but just 7% went to China in the first seven months of 2023-24. USDA’s March methodology adjustment puts its latest 2022-23 and 2023-24 Chinese soybean import estimates 7% and 9% above China’s ministry, respectively. But the disparity in the initial 2024-25 outlooks is a whopping 15%, with USDA 14.4 million tons.
(Link: Reuters)
