JULY WASDE SURPRISES TRADE WITH OLD CROP ENDING STOCKS REDUCTIONS
The trade was expecting new crop corn ending stocks to go up (reached 2.289 billion bushels) but the WASDE report pegged the U.S. 2024/2025 corn ending stocks lower (reached 2.102 billion bushels). Soybean ending stocks were reduced more than the trade expected (from 447 to 445 billion bushels) while wheat ending stocks were increased more than expected. Much like with the new crop estimate, the WASDE report decreased corn ending stocks for the 2023/2024 marketing year (from 2.047 to 2.022 billion bushels) when the trade was expecting an increase. Soybean ending stocks were also lowered when an increase was expected. Wheat ending stocks were increased more than expected.
For the 2024/2025 marketing year, USDA increased global corn ending stocks as the trade expected. Soybean ending stocks were decreased but not as much as the trade expected. Wheat ending stocks defied expectations by going up when the trade expected a decrease. For the 2023/2024 marketing year, USDA decreased global corn ending stocks more than expected. Soybean ending stocks were increased, when a decrease was expected. Wheat ending stocks were pegged higher than expected. Trade expectations of corn, soybeans, and wheat are 312 million MTS, 110.9 million MTS, and 259.9 million MTS respectively. However, world ending stocks in June 2024 of corn, soybeans, and wheat are 312.4 million MTS, 111.1 million MTS, and 259.6 million MTS respectively.
Month-over-month, USDA reduced both the corn and soybean estimates for Argentina. USDA pegged Argentina’s corn production higher than expected and soybean production lower than expected. Brazil’s corn and soybean production estimates were held steady. Trade expectations for corn in Argentina and Brazil are 51.7 million MTS, and 121 million MTS respectively. June Corn Production in Argentina and Brazil are 53 million MTS and 122 million MTS respectively. Trade expectations for soybeans in Argentina and Brazil are 50 million MTS and 151.8 million MTS respectively. June Corn Production in Argentina and Brazil are 50 million MTS and 153 million MTS respectively.
(Link: SuccessfulFarming)
