USDA SEES MORE SOYBEAN, LESS CORN PRODUCTION
Corn supplies in 2024-25 are projected at a record 17.2 billion bushels, with lower production (forecast at 15 billion bushels, down 2% from 2023’s record high) more than offset by sharply higher beginning stocks. Production is based on 83.1 million harvest acres, about 91% of planted acres, a trend yield of 181 bushels an acre. Domestic use, and exports all are expected to increase. Global corn trade has increased by 65 million tonnes since 2014-15. While the increase largely has been driven by Chinese demand, there also has been growth in the European Union, Mexico, and Vietnam demand.
US soybean production is forecast at a record 4.5 billion bushels in 2024-25, up 8% from the current crop year, based on an expanded yield projection of 52 bushels an acre. Exports are projected up 9% to 1.9 billion bushels on global demand growth while crush is expected at 2.4 billion bushels, up 4% from the current crop year. Soybean oil’s share of crush value has increased to between 40% and 45% over the past five years. A fresh soybean meal record-high production is expected in 2024-25
Total domestic wheat supplies are forecast at nearly 2.7 billion bushels, up 6% from 2023-24 in reflection of lackluster exports in the current year. Drought is far less severe than a year ago in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Colorado, and Montana. That has raised yield expectations to 49.5 bushels an acre, up 2% from the previous crop year, and improved the harvested ratio to about 82%. Harvested acres are projected at 38.4 million acres, up 3%. Domestic food use of wheat is expected to remain steady, while exports could rise 7% to 775 million bushels. Still, exports look to remain historically low. Vuillemin said. “US wheat shipments have not picked up despite disruptions caused by the war in Russia and Ukraine. This very competitive environment has made it very difficult for the US to gain market share, particularly given the price sensitivity of some of the customers served by Russia and the EU.”
(Link: WorldGrain)
