GRAIN MARKET REVIEW: COARSE GRAINS
The July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the US Department of Agriculture added more bullish ideas on demand to the factors involved. In its Grain Market Report of July 18, the International Grain Council (IGC) said its sub-index for maize prices had “firmed in recent weeks, albeit with differing trends across the leading exporters.” Pulled higher by gains in Ukraine and Brazil, average export prices rose by a net 2%, still 12% lower compared to a year ago. “US maize futures worked lower, the spot September contract dropping by 6%, on bearishly perceived supply side fundamentals,” the IGC said.
The IGC also pointed to a slight decline in up-river prices in Argentina with limited fresh news, while there was “a firmer tone amid tepid grower selling interest,” in Brazilian export premiums, “with bottlenecks on river routes to Northern Arc ports reportedly adding to inland transportation costs.” Sorghum followed maize down in the United States, was lower on ample supplies in Argentina and was also cheaper in Australia on “an absence of fresh demand,” according to the IGC. New crop rye in Germany was “underpinned by mixed harvest results,” it said, while “nominal values in Russia firmed.”
The European Confederation of Maize Production (CEPM) said in its Corn Market publication of July 17 that prices had fallen over the previous week. “In its July report, compared with June, the USDA revised US maize stocks for the 2024-25 marketing year down very slightly (to 53 million tonnes), whereas operators had been expecting a substantial rise linked to the increase in production (5 million tonnes), anticipated as a result of the increase in acreage announced at the end of June,” the CEMP said. “These lower USDA stock forecasts come from a surprise drop (of 3.7 million tonnes) in stocks for the 2023-24 marketing year as a result of better-than-expected consumption for animal feed and exports,” the Paris-based Confederation said.
(Link: WorldGrain)
