BRAZIL’S CROP WEATHER IN 2023 IS CHALLENGING YEARS LIKE 2015
El Niño events have a big influence on weather throughout the world. This year’s drier-than-usual bias kicked in after a prolonged period of drought already had depleted water supply and soil moisture throughout the Amazon River Basin. Weather conditions in Brazil so far this spring have been poor in many areas and if a turnaround does not occur soon production may be notably off the trend as it was in 2015-16 and 2020-21. In 2015, El Niño was solely responsible for lower grain and oilseed production. This year is a bit different.
Already in the past few weeks the Vegetative Health Index (VHI) has shown conditions in Brazil to be worse than those of 2015 in some areas and better in others. The VHI has shown that conditions in northeastern Brazil and the Amazon River Basin may not be as bad as that of 2015. Drought-induced stress seen in the over southern Mato Grosso and much of Mato Grosso do Sul can be clearly seen in satellite imagery. Crops in these areas are confirmed to be suffering from too much heat and dryness and the situation is much worse than that of 2015. Farther to the south, too much rain and flooding frequently has damaged spring and summer crops from Rio Grande do Sul into southern Parana. This, too, is seen in the lower (more stressed) VHI data compared to that of 2015. If this trend of adverse weather is not soon stopped the decline in 2023 crop production in Brazil is destined to be worse than that of 2015, which was the most recent year of significant production cuts for soybean and corn.
Brazil’s heatwave this spring and that noted in Argentina, South Africa and Australia is similar to that which occurred in North America, Europe and parts of Asia in the Northern Hemisphere summer of 2023. World Weather, Inc. believes that Brazil’s unusual rainy season and recent heatwave can be largely attributed to El Niño, the 22-year solar cycle and the lingering effects of the Hunga Tonga volcano. Monsoon moisture in both North and South America this year was below average, and the evidence also is pointing to the volcanic eruption, although that has not been proven yet.
(Link: WorldGrain)
