DRYNESS RAISES WHEAT CONCERN
Drought continues to dominate a large part of North America from Mexico through the central United States to more than two-thirds of Canada’s Prairies. Some of this dryness has been ongoing since 2020 and this year’s dryness affected many crops, including spring wheat, canola, sunseed, corn, sorghum, soybeans, sugar beets and a host of other crops.
The bulk of Argentina’s wheat and barley from central and eastern Buenos Aires into Entre Rios has experienced good weather in recent weeks and the crop likely will perform favorably as long as timely rain continues, but western crop areas are destined to see lower yields due to ongoing drought.
Australia’s potential production problem will hinge on the month of October. However, the area of beneficial moisture has been shrinking in recent weeks due to below-normal rainfall and warmer-than-usual temperatures. Central and northern New South Wales, like northern Western Australia and Queensland, have experienced a notable decline in soil moisture in recent weeks stressing crops as they approached and moved into reproduction. Most of the important wheat, barley, and canola grown in southern Australia reproduce and fill during October and finish filling and maturing in November with harvesting most active in November and December. Some early harvesting will occur in October from the northern production areas. If the recent dry and warm-biased trend prevails in October yield potentials may steadily fall, but if there are timely bouts of rain and seasonable temperatures the crops will perform well enough to minimize production losses from the north.
In addition to the Australian and Argentina situation, there is concern over Russia and Ukraine wheat, rye, barley, and rapeseed planting conditions. Fieldwork likely will advance for a while longer, but the seed is being put into the ground under very dry conditions. That is likely to delay germination and emergence, resulting in poor stands and a much higher vulnerability to winterkill during the cold season.
(Link: WorldGrain)
