GLOBAL GRAIN TRADE REVIEW
Despite the war in Ukraine and the blockade of the Black Sea, it is supplies from Ukraine and Russia that are keeping world wheat prices down, while maize and other coarse grains have turned higher. The FAO’s latest Food Price Index shows average global grain prices up 1% month-on-month, but 14.6% below their September 2022 level. A 5.3% increase in international coarse grain prices drove the overall rise for the sector and was itself driven by a 7% increase in maize prices in September. The FAO blamed the 1.6% month-on-month fall in wheat prices on “ample supplies in the Russian Federation, where production prospects were lifted in September.”
The FAO also raised its forecast for global cereal production in 2023 by 3.8 million tonnes from the previous forecast, bringing it to 2.819 billion. The forecast for wheat production was upward by 3.7 million tonnes in September to 785 million tonnes. The FAO’s forecast for world coarse grains production, at 1.511 million tonnes, is virtually unchanged from the previous forecast and is a 2.7%, or 39.2-million-tonne, increase from the previous year. The forecast for global maize production was raised slightly this month, driven almost entirely by improved prospects in Brazil. The organization also trimmed its forecast for the world’s barley crop “marginally,” the recent cutback to the global forecast is mainly the result of a downgraded production outlook for Canada.
The FAO now puts world cereal utilization in 2023-24 at 2.804 billion tonnes, which it said was still 0.8% higher than in 2022-23 despite a 3.1-million-tonne downward revision in September. The forecast for total wheat utilization has been lowered by 1.7 million tonnes since the previous report to 783 million tonnes. The UN body is now expecting total utilization of coarse grains in 2023-24 at 1.5 billion tonnes, 1.1 million down on its previous forecast.
The forecast for world grain trade in 2023-24 is around 466 million tonnes, a reduction of 1.7%, or 8 million tonnes, from the previous year, with wheat exports put at an unchanged 193 million tonnes, down 3.5%, or 7 million tonnes. World trade in coarse grains in 2023-24 also is unrevised from last month at 220 million tonnes. The FAO’s forecasts for world trade in maize in 2023-24 at 178 million tonnes. IGC expected that wheat trade pegged at 195.9 million tonnes%), 1.3 million lower month-on-month.
(Link: WorldGrain)
