CORN
Market holiday on Monday, to Tuesday, February 21, CBOT corn price increased by 1.1 USD/ton due to market concerns about Argentina’s crop prospects. Technology company Maxar forecasts that rainfall in Argentina’s growing belt over the next 10 days remains limited in coverage and intensity, which could put a strain on maize acreage. Grain exchange BCR said last week that Argentina’s corn exports for the period from March to June this year reached only 8.7 million tons, a sharp drop of 40% compared to the same period last year.
Ending the session on February 22 and CBOT corn price fell due to profit-taking selling pressure, along with the appreciation of the US dollar while the world crude oil price dropped. On February 23 at the annual USDA Agricultural Outlook forum, the USDA released its first forecasts for the 2023 crop outlook for the US. Accordingly, the US corn planted area in 2023 is estimated at 91 million acres (36.8 million hectares), higher than traders’ expectations and up 2.7% year-on-year, thanks to the yield forecast. The record high is 181.5 bushels/acre.
At the end of the last trading session of the week on February 24, the price of CBOT corn fell by 4 USD/ton, marking the third consecutive decrease. Prices fell sharply after USDA forecasts released at the Agriculture Outlook forum on Thursday showed potential signs of optimism for the 2023 US corn crop.
WHEAT
Going against the market trend, the price of CBOT wheat on February 21 dropped sharply by 5.5 USD/ton. According to experts, it is still uncertain whether the safe shipping channel for Ukraine’s grain exports will resume in March, but on the Russian side, the country may still have rice supplies. Abundant noodles at competitive prices for export. In the session on February 22, wheat price continued to drop sharply by 5.1 USD/ton.
Having the opposite trend of the market, at the close of session 2/2, CBOT wheat price turned to increase slightly by 0.7 USD/ton after falling for 2 consecutive sessions. At its annual agricultural forum, the USDA forecasted U.S. wheat production in 2023 at 51.3 million cans, with yields averaging 6% higher than last year.
CBOT wheat price plummeted 11 USD/ton. USDA forecasts US production in 2023 at 51.3 million tons., 6% higher than last year’s average. Along with that, the pressure of abundant wheat supply with competitive prices from the Black Sea region, including Russia – the world’s largest exporter, is still a factor affecting the price of this commodity.
SOYBEAN AND SOYBEAN MEAL
Closing the session on February 21, soybean and soybean meal prices simultaneously increased due to concerns about crop prospects in Argentina. Financial consulting firm Agrural said earlier this week that Brazil has harvested 25% of its soybean acreage in the 2022/23 crop year, up 8% from the previous week.
Soybean and soybean meal prices closed the session on February 22, down 3.4 and 5.6 USD/ton, respectively, the pressure on abundant soybean supply from the ongoing harvest in Brazil is one of the important factors affecting decrease in world prices.
Closing the session on February 23, the price of beans and soybean meal CBOT had mixed movements. Abundant supply from Brazil is a limiting factor in world prices. On the other hand, traders are more concerned about the prospects of this year’s corn and soybean crops in Argentina, when prolonged bad weather causes damage. It is expected that in April, Argentine farmers will start harvesting soybeans for the new crop year.
Soybean seed prices closed at 1.9 USD/ton at the end of the week while soybean meal increased by 4.4 USD/ton. The market has many concerns about supply from Argentina – the world’s largest rice exporter. On February 23, grain exchange BAGE reduced its forecast for Argentina’s 2022/23 soybean harvest to 33.5 million tons, 4.5 million tons lower than previously reported, due to the prolonged drought. , along with the recent heat wave and early frost.
